A GUIDE TO ODDS
The basics
Odds are used to determine the amounts paid out on winning bets. They can be either odds on, or odds against.
- Odds On – The potential amount you can win will be less than the amount staked.
- Odds Against – The potential amount you can win will be greater than the amount staked.
You’ll still make a profit from winning an odds on bet, as your initial stake is returned too, but you have to risk an amount that’s higher than you stand to gain. Big favourites are often odds on, as they are more likely to win.
Odds can also be even money. A winning even money bet will return exactly the amount staked in profit, plus the original stake. So you basically double your money.
The higher the odds, the less likely a wager is to win, but the greater the rewards will be.
Odds formats
Decimal
This is the simplest odds format. Decimal odds, which are usually displayed using two decimal places, show exactly how much a winning wager will return per unit staked.
For example:
£10 bet @ 3.0 odds = £30 potential return (including your original £10 stake)
£10 bet @ 3.5 odds = £35 potential return (including your original £10 stake)
The calculation to work out the potential return when using decimal odds is very simple:
Stake x Odds = Potential Return
In order to work out the potential profit just subtract one from the odds:
Stake x (Odds – 1) = Potential Profit
Note – 2.00 is the equivalent of even money. Anything higher than 2.00 is odds against, and anything lower is odds on.
Fractional
Fractional odds are commonly used in the UK, which is much a legacy thing, and is gradually being replaced by the European decimal format (all bookmakers’ sites will have the option to change the default odds from fractional to decimal).
Here are some simple examples of fractional odds.
- 2/1 (two-to-one) – an example of odds against
- 10/1 (ten-to-one) – an example of odds against
- 1/5 (one-to-five) – an example of odds on
Note that even money is expressed as 1/1, but typically referred to as “evens.”
Working out returns can be overwhelming and thankfully there are odds converter tools to help. However, it is useful to have a basic understanding, to help make a quick/instant judgement on whether the odds on offer are good or bad (& then work in the decimal format for a more accurate picture).
Each fraction shows how much profit you stand to make on a winning wager, but you need to remember to add in your initial stake. So, for odds of 2/1, this shows that for every £1 you stake, you will win £2. You then add your stake back onto this to get your final returns.
Stake x (a/b) = potential profit
For example:
£10 bet @ 2/1 odds = £20 winnings plus your original £10 stake = £30
£10 bet @ 5/2 odds = £25 winnings plus your original £10 stake = £35
Odds and probability
The odds given by a bookie aren’t necessarily a direct reflection of the chances of something happening or not.
Probability in sports betting is subjective. Both bettors and bookmakers are going to have a difference of opinion when it comes to predicting the likely outcome of a game.
Probabilities typically vary by 5% to 10%: sometimes less, sometimes more. Successful sports betting is largely about making accurate assessments about the probability of an outcome, and then determining if the odds of that outcome make a bet worthwhile.
To make that determination, we need to understand implied probability
Implied probability
Implied probability is what the odds suggest the chances of any given outcome happening are. It can help us to calculate the bookmaker’s advantage in a betting market. More importantly, implied probability is something that can really help us determine whether or not a bet offers value.
Value exists whenever the odds are set higher than you think they should be. Implied probability tells us whether or not this is the case.
Imagine there’s a match between two tennis players of an identical standard. A bookmaker gives both players the exact same chance of winning, and so prices the odds at 2.00 for each player.
However, in reality a bookmaker would never set the odds at 2.00 on both players. But, for this example, let’s assume they did:
What these odds are telling us is that the match is essentially the same as a coin toss. There are two possible outcomes and each one is just as likely as the other. In theory, each player has a 50% chance of winning the match.
This 50% is the implied probability. And there is a formula for converting decimal odds into implied probability:
Implied Probability = 1 / decimal odds
This gives a number of between zero and one, which is how probability should be expressed (but, it’s easier to think of probability as a percentage though, so multiplying the result of the formula by 100).
The odds in the tennis players example are 2.00. So, 1 / 2.00 is .50, which multiplied by 100 gives 50%.
If each player truly did have a 50% chance of winning this match, then there would be no point in placing a wager on either one. You’ve got a 50% chance of doubling your money, and a 50% chance of losing your stake. Your expectation is neutral.
However, you might think that one player is more likely to win. Perhaps you have been following their form closely, and you believe that one of the players actually has a 60% chance of beating his opponent.
In this case, value would exist when betting on your preferred player. If your opinion is accurate, you’ve got a 60% chance of doubling your money and only a 40% chance of losing your stake. Your expectation is now positive.
If your view is that the actual probability is higher than the implied probability, then you’ve found some value.
Finding value is key to successful sports betting, and one that you should always have an eye on.
Bookmakers aren't charities
How do bookmakers make money? It is simple really; they try to take more money in losing bets than they pay out in winning bets. In reality, though, it isn’t quite that simple.
If they offered completely fair odds on an event then they would not be guaranteed a profit and would be potentially exposed to risk. Bookmakers do not expose themselves to risk (there’s a reason why the founder of bet365 is one of the richest women in the UK!) Their goal is to make a profit on every event. And this is where a balanced book and the overround come in play.
For every event that they take bets on, a bookmaker will always look to build in an overround. They’ll also try to ensure that they have balanced books.
A balanced book
When a bookmaker has a balanced book for a particular event, it means that they stand to pay out roughly the same amount of money regardless of the outcome. So, usng the example of the tennis match with odds of 2.00 of each player. If a bookmaker took £10,000 worth of bets on each player, then they would have a balanced book. Regardless of which player wins, they have to pay out a total of £20,000.
Of course, a bookmaker wouldn’t make any money in the above scenario. They have taken a total of £20,000 in bets, and paid the same amount out. Their goal is to be in a situation where they pay out less than they take in.
This is why, in addition to having a balanced book, they also build in the overround.
The Overround or Vig
The overround is also known as vig, juice, or margin. It’s effectively a commission that bookmakers charge their customers every time they place a bet. They don’t directly charge this fee – they just reduce the odds from their true probability. So the odds that you would see on a tennis match where both players were equally likely to win would be about 1.91 on each player.
If you again assumed that they took £10,000 on each player, then they would now be guaranteed a profit whichever player wins. Their total pay-out would be £19,100 in winning wagers against the total of £20,000 they have taken. The £900 difference is the overround.
This above scenario is an ideal situation for any bookmaker. The volume of bets they take is important to them, because their goal is to make money. The more money they take, the more likely they are to be able to create a balanced book.
The overround and the need for a balanced book is also why the odds for sports events are ever changing. If a bookmaker is taking too much money on a particular outcome, they will probably reduce the odds to discourage further bets (& vice versa).
Bookmakers are not always successful in creating a balanced book, and they do sometimes lose money on an event. In fact, bookmakers losing money on an event isn’t uncommon by any means, BUT they do generally get close to being balanced far more often than not.
Just because bookmakers make sure they turn a profit in the long run, doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten. You don’t have to make them lose money overall, you just have to concentrate on making more money from your winning bets & by taking full advantage of odds boosts, free bets, etc, etc.
BOOKIES v's EXCHANGES
When you’re new to betting, it can sometimes be difficult knowing the difference between all of the different available options. One common area of confusion is centred around the use of betting exchanges and sportsbooks (bookies).
What’s the difference?
You may well have used a sportsbook before, or a traditional high street bookmaker/bookie.
The bookmaker creates what is known as the ‘book’. This is where he forms the betting market for an event, with each of the different selections that are available at a given price. He prices each selection so that the combined probabilities add up to slightly over 100%, by adding what is known as an over-round or vig (see above).
You, the customer, then place a bet with the bookmaker at the available odds, and if your selection wins, you’re paid at a multiple of the odds. A betting exchange differs because they don’t set odds, they don’t take your bets, and they don’t pay you out of their own pocket.
The betting exchange company (e.g. Betfair) just provides a platform for users to bet against each other. One user acts as the bookmaker, and the other person plays the role of a traditional gambler. Because of this, the betting market looks completely different, as you’ll see below:
In the above picture, a back bet is a traditional bet (in blue). You place a bet and you’re paid out at a multiple of the odds you backed your selection at. A lay bet (in pink), is where a gambler plays the role of the bookmaker. They are effectively saying they don’t think a certain selection will win, and they offer odds to anyone who wishes to accept the bet.
So, if you placed a lay bet of the above selection, Cleonte, at odds of 4.8, you would state how much money you’re willing to lay. For this example, let's say £10.
If Cleonte won the race, as you’re playing the role of the bookmaker, you are liable to pay out £48 to the winner on the other side of the bet. If you were correct, and Cleonte failed to win, you would get to keep their £10.
So how does the betting exchange make their money? Well, they take a small commission of between 2% - 5% on all winning bets.
Commission v's Over-round
In real life terms, a correct book percentage should add up to 100%. This is because the probability of one of the horses winning a horse race (should it be completed) is 100%. Odds are representative of the percentage chance each horse has of winning a race. However, using the same race,and now showing the William Hill odds:
Adding up the implied probability of each selection in the above (100 / odds price) = 128.1%.
This is because the above book is one created by a bookie. The ‘over-round’ of 28.1% means that the bookmaker expects to make a profit of 28.1% for the total amount of bets placed on the market. So if they take £1,000 in bets on the market, they expect a profit of £281.
To achieve this over-round number, the bookmaker is offering you odds that are less than actual probability your chosen horse has of winning the race.
In comparison, the probability of all of the odds on the Betfair example adds up to 101.5%. And as a result, some of the odds available on the betting exchange are much higher (although remember, if you win, your winnings will be subject to a commission of between 2 - 5%, depending on the betting exchange).
As an example:
- You place £10 on Paddy's Motorbike at William Hill (odds of 41), and also at Betfair (odds of 55)
- If the horse wins, you have a return of £410 at William Hill v's £550 at Betfair (minus the 5% commission = £522.50).
- Take off your original £10 stake, the profit difference between Betfair & William Hill is £112.50 - from the same horse and the same race
Account restrictions
Bookies often use big wins as marketing material to encourage others to bet with them, but the fact remains that if the bookmaker deems you to be an unprofitable customer, they will potentially do one of a few things:
1. Restrict the amount of money you can place on a bet
2. exclude you from all future promotions & bonuses (n.b. you may still receive all of the promotional emails, but when it comes to claim your bonus, they will deny you - so be warned)
3. close your account completely (in extreme cases)
Each bookmaker platform has an algorithm which rates the behaviour of each player. It applies a score to each bet, with weighting given to lots of different factors. These are things like stake, price of the bet compared to the rest of the industry, how popular the bet is, whether it was a winner, and so on. They are trying to eliminate the professional, or shrewd gamblers that recognise the importance of value betting.
Most bookies therefore only like gamblers that bet purely for entertainment. So when your algorithm score rates you as a good gambler and unprofitable for their business, then your account is likely to be flagged - but not with exchange betting.
A betting exchange wants players to win. They receive a commission no matter what the result, and if you’re winning, you’re more likely to keep using their platform.
Betting Options
One of the key things to consider when deciding whether to use a bookie or an exchange, is if it provides you with the capability to place the type of bet you’re looking to do. There are 2 types of betting for which your option is limited to a particular platform, and 1 type of bet where you can choose between either option. We’ll run through each of these three.
1. Multiples
If you are someone who likes betting on multiples/ACCAs, then your only real choice is to place those bets via a bookie. This is because the bookmaker supplies the odds. As a result, they can multiply your bets placed on each market and pay you out at the accumulative odds should every selection win. An exchange doesn’t have this capability because you’re placing a bet with a range of different people, rather than the bookmaker.
2. Trading
Trading is a very in-depth topic to cover, and there are thousands of different strategies, but it is one of the main benefits of exchange betting. So, what is trading? Trading is when you back and lay selections within the same market to reduce risk, create a no lose situation, or maybe even win no matter the outcome. You can take advantage of price movements within a market to lock in guaranteed profit. Think of exchange trading as like trading the stock market. With a stock market, you buy stock low and sell high. The aim is to take advantage of a movement in price to get a profit. The same goes for exchange betting.
As an example, if you were to 'back' Chelsea to win at odds of 3.0 for a stake of £10, normally you would have to wait for them to win the match before you could be sure of a profit. However, if they go 1-0 up early in the match, their odds to win are likely to decrease, say to 1.5. If you were to then place an opposing bet, by 'laying' them to win the match for £20, you have created a situation where you will win no matter the result - i.e. if Chelsea win, your initial 'back' selection wins giving you a profit of £30 minus the £20 that you 'layed'. If Chelsea go on to lose, then your 'back' selection of £10 loses, but your 'lay' bet of £20 wins. This gives you a profit no matter the outcome.
3. Singles
You can bet on singles with both an exchange and a bookie, and really, this choice should be made depending on the price of your chosen selection. It’s advisable that you shop around and don’t stay chained to one bookmaker or an exchange because of convenience. There are excellent price comparison tools such as oddschecker & betbrain which allow you to pinpoint who has the best odds. Over the long term, the small differences really add up and can making the difference between being at a loss or in profit.
Free Bets And Bonuses
One of the biggest areas in which bookmakers and exchange products differ is with their free bets and bonus schemes.
The reason for free bets and bonuses is to keep you entertained and coming back for more, and to continue your play and enjoyment of their product. So it is logical that this is a marketing strategy used by bookies, yet very rarely by exchanges.
Both bookmakers and Exchanges would like you to come and try their product. So they offer welcome bonuses in the form of free bets when you sign up. For exchange products, this is where the promotions start to dry up. Of course, they would like you to continue to use their platform. But there is far less competition, with just a few major exchange platforms to choose from (Betfair, smarkets, matchbook, Betdaq).
Compare that to bookies, who are at a point of saturation - in terms of the sheer number of bookies in the UK market, and by the size of their products (thousands of sports and betting options). The power is therefore held by the customers, so the only thing many bookies have to differentiate themselves is their marketing and promotions.
HORSE RACING
Guide to Different Horse Race Bets
Of those who bet on horses on a regular basis, 97-98% lose. With figures like these the punters are clearly up against it, but rather than give up and move on, all we need to do is apply logic and be willing to learn how to increase results.
Playing the betting markets is tantamount to assessing probability, it’s as simple as that, and there are various ways we can do this, so long as we first understand the different betting markets available to us.
Win Markets
A win bet is a bet, placed on a single horse, to win its individual race.
At the very entry level of betting on horses, some people forget that your overall return includes your stake amount, i.e. if you place £50 on a horse at 3/1, your winning return would be £200.
Accepting the current price on a horse, or leaving to the starting price, is a risk that is up to you. Most online firms these days offer “best odds guaranteed” on most horse races so taking the price is advised. This way should you accept 3/1 but then your horse goes off at 4/1 and wins, you will be paid out at the bigger price.
Ante Post
This term refers to markets built before the final declarations have been announced. It could be a few days before the race, or in the cases of the world’s top races months in advance.
Odds in ante post markets are generally higher than they are on the day, as this will take into account the fact that we don’t know if our chosen horse will even run. The earlier you are prepared to back a horse, the better odds you can expect.
There is naturally an element of risk attached to ante post betting; however, with betting exchanges we can play the part of the bookmaker. This can allow you to back a horse in the ante post market, and if you feel things aren’t going the way you expected near race time, you may 'lay' the horse on the exchange(s) and potentially recoup some or all of your money.
Cover Bets
Cover bets, or ‘full cover bets’, are offered to punters who wish to bet in multiples on more than one horse.
A double is a bet on two horses, both of which need to win, a treble is a win for three horses. Your odds will multiply, namely if you backed horses at 3.0 and 4.0 in a double then your winning odds would be 11/1. This happens because your first horse is 2/1 and should it win you would receive your stake back and the whole amount goes on the next horse:
e.g. £1 @ 3.0 (wins) = £3. £3 @ 4.0 = £12. A £12 return minus your original stake is £11.
Many other cover bets are available for higher multiples, all with different names. A yankee for example means picking 4 horses and placing 11 different bets = 6 x doubles, 4 x trebles and a 4-horse accumulator.
Should 2 of your horses win and 2 lose, then you will be paid out on one of the successful doubles. Do remember though that your unit stake is multiplied accordingly, so should you place a £1 yankee then your overall bet amount is £11.
Super Yankee (5 horses, 26 bets), Heinz (6 horses, 57 bets), Super Heinz (7 horses, 120 bets) and Goliath (8 horses, 247 bets) are other popular cover bets used every day by online punters.
Betting Online
Although traditional betting shops still do a fair trade in places like the UK, betting online has been at the forefront of the industry for some time now, and this is where you will find the best deals & be able to bet in a more convenient way.
There is little excuse for bettors not finding the best odds available for their chosen horse, given that we can use oddschecker and other comparison sites, to see what prices are on offer for multiple bookmakers on a given race.
Payouts online are instant, and in most cases your returns will be in your account a minute or so after the result is called and be ready to withdraw or used again for another bet.
Betting Exchanges
These are betting marketplaces for players to essentially back and lay among themselves.
Often similar markets on all the regular races are offered on the exchanges, however you as the punter have the choice to buy or sell the placing of a horse - i.e. other words you may wish to 'back' the horse to win or ‘lay’ it to not win.
Laying a horse means you are playing the part of the bookmaker, e.g. you feel that a particular horse doesn’t have as much of a chance as what its odds suggest. So, you can offer the horse at a slightly more attractive price to backers, who will back the horse with you.
Should the horse win, you will need to pay out (to an agreed limit), however should it be beaten then all the money gambled with you is yours to keep.
The exchanges generate their revenue by charging a commission, a percentage of customer’s winnings, and are seen as the fairest way to bet these days.
Choosing A Racing Bet
With such a small percentage chance of winning, how do pro gamblers choose their horses?
There is obviously no simple answer, but a key recommendation is to set yourself some sort of betting rules, to ensure you do nothing silly. Stay disciplined, and don’t bet beyond your means. Having a betting bank is a good way of doing this to start off with, the most popular form of such is to have aside the amount of money you would be willing to lose if it all went wrong, then bet with 10% of it at a time.
This makes your staking fluid, so should you have a £50 bank your first bet would be £5. If it loses, your next bet would only be £4.50 (10% of £45). The good thing about this is that you allow yourself to also increase stakes to maximise your profits if you are successful. So when your bank reaches £80, you will be betting £8.
Make Sure You Get Value For Money
Professional horse racing gamblers will always speak about the importance of getting value for your bets. Too often this is an area ignored by amateurs. Finding good value is incredibly important as we are looking to get ahead of the bookmakers.
The reason for finding value is sound, but calculating value is the hard part. Understanding what the odds mean on each horse is the first step, as many just have a figure in their head and stick with it, even though it could be wrong.
A 2/1 favourite looks like a very solid proposition when you see it and some even call such horses “good things” or “shoe-ins”. In reality, a bookmaker offering 2/1 on a horse basically means that (including a 5% over-round for the bookie), they have placed a 35% chance on this horse. So, generally speaking, 65% of such horses will be beaten.
In a typical 10-horse race, you may not have been able to completely discount many of the runners. You need to be realistic though; even though you may strongly fancy a certain runner there are many others in the line-up that could also win.
So, let’s say you are pretty happy with your selection but place its chances of winning at somewhere around a 1 in 3 chance, then we should be looking to back it a price no shorter than 3.25 to make sure we’re ahead of the game long term. If you like such a horse but cannot get better than say 2.5, then you should just leave the race alone.
Staking Plans
Other than having a betting bank and an understanding of what value means, it's also worth having a staking plan.
The easiest one to use is a points system, with confidence behind your horse being ranked 1 – 10 points. A 10-point bet would rarely, if ever happen, as what you’re essentially saying is that you are 100% confident your horse would win - which is a situation we’re never really in.
With this system, you simply work out what amount of money you are willing to risk “per point” and then bet accordingly. So, imagine you have a pretty strong feeling and rate your horse as a 50% chance, then you place a 5-point bet. Had you been gambling at £5 per point, then this bet would be worth £25.
With such a system in place you will immediately be more disciplined, however you should not be scared to increase or decrease your stakes accordingly. If you’ve had a bad month, you may reduce your stakes to say £3 per point until things get better. On the other hand, if you are well ahead, an increase should be applied to ensure you are maximising your success.
Key take out
When placing horse racing bets, consider the following:
- Familiarise yourself with all the markets available
- Ensure you are getting the best price available for your horses(s)
- Get value for money
- Stay disciplined – if your horse does not represent value, then do not bet or take a 'punt'
- Remain patient – even pro’s are happy with a 40% strike-rate so long as their bets are good value
- Stick to a staking plan or points plan
- Stay away from the unknown as much as possible – you want to know your horse has a sound chance
ACCUMULATORS / ACCAs
All of the advertising, inducements, bonus offers, and marketing of accumulator/ACCA bets give the impression that they are incredibly popular. Potential winning accumulators can seem like a small lottery win, just for picking the right outcomes of a few sporting events - and this is the attraction, potentially huge wins for a relatively small outlay.
But it should come as no surprise that bookmakers see accumulator bets as a major source of income. Mainly because most punters are unaware of their chances of winning, or are ignorant of how to make a profit from them.
What is an Accumulator/ACCA bet?
Accumulator bets, or ACCAs, are usually high risk, high return bundles of uncorrelated bets.
An ACCA, also known as a parlay bet or a combo bet, is a single investment comprising two or more individual wagers known as ‘legs’ or ‘folds’. For example, a two-fold accumulator or ‘double’, consists of bets on the outcomes of two independent events; a three-fold bet (a ‘treble’) is composed of bets on three outcomes, and so on.
An ACCA is high risk, but with high returns
An ACCA is a high-risk venture because its success depends upon the correct prediction of all outcomes in the bet-bundle – One wrong prediction forfeits the entire stake.
Higher Number of Legs = More Risk Involved = Higher Potential Returns
The level of risk is obviously reduced with fewer legs but, of course, a lower risk goes hand-in-hand with lower returns.
An ACCA is a bundle of bets
The returns from an ACCA are far higher than splitting a stake of the same size, and placing a series of individual bets on the same outcomes.
Think of winning a spin on ‘black’ at roulette and then leaving the original stake together with the winnings riding on ‘red’ for the next spin – planning to do this, say, four times in a row is the same accumulative investment process as a four-fold bet.
Both exhibit a form of progressive staking, which continues until either the bet is let-down by the failure of any particular leg (spin), or all legs (spins) win. Both wagers are literally ‘all or nothing’ propositions.
The whole of the ACCA stake, therefore, rides on the first leg and, if it wins, the amount won plus the original stake forms a running total to be staked on the second leg. After each leg, the running total is passed onto the next bet in the list until a conclusion is reached.
Bets in an ACCA must be uncorrelated
The bundle can contain bets from a range of sports – it does not necessarily have to be limited to bets from any particular sport or any one league. In this way, the scope for different styles of bets contained within a single ACCA is almost limitless.
But bets chosen for the ACCA from the same sporting fixture (i.e. the same match) must be independent of each other. For example, it is okay to include team X winning the first half of a game and to have a different leg of the ACCA predicting team Y to win the match outright.
What are the chances of success?
Odds are purely indicators of implied probabilities at the time you view them or buy them. They will change throughout the ante-post market (i.e. prior to kick-off), depending upon the weight of money wagered.
High demand for one side of an outcome leads to a drop in price (i.e. demand exceeds supply), whilst the odds for the other, more unpopular outcome at the time rises to provide balance. Bookmakers use this pivotal pricing mechanism to balance their books and ensure a margin of profit regardless of the outcome.
It is therefore difficult to estimate accurately what the chances of our four-fold ACCA actually are. We can work out our own odds using historical statistics and compare them with those bought to establish the amount of value in our bets. There are many ways of doing this, and one man’s estimate of the true odds will probably differ from the next.
However, what we can do is work out from the four odds we have bought, what the implied probability of our ACCA is. This should provide us with a rough idea of its chances of success.
e.g. Four odds are: 3.2, 3.9, 1.47, 3.45. Convert these to implied probabilities by taking each odds, and performing the following simple calculation: 100/Odds & express the result as a percentage. i.e. 100/3.2 = 31.25%, 100/3.9 = 25.6%, 100/1.47 = 68%, 100/3.45 = 29%. Now multiply these four percentages together: 31.25% x 25.6% x 68% x 29% = 1.58%. Based on the odds we have just bought, the implied chance of all four of the predictions coming to fruition is just 1.58%.
But it is not all doom and gloom, because if the first leg wins, the chances of the four-fold improve to the probability of the remaining three legs: 25.6% x 68% x 29% = 5%. If the first two legs win the chance of success improves to: 68% x 29% = 19.8%
This progressive improvement of the odds, as each leg completes, provides important benchmarks to gauge risk in order to make decisions whether to let it ride or to lay it off at any point. It also keeps emotions in check as expectations are known at the start of each leg.
The pitfalls of Accumulator bets
There are several things to bear in mind when placing an ACCA bet:
- The particular bookmaker’s maximum pay-out should be known when compiling a multi-leg ACCA. There is no point compiling, for example, a 15 leg ACCA, to win £250,000 if the maximum pay-out with that bookie is limited to only £150,000. Read the terms and conditions of each bookmaker in your portfolio carefully before embarking on any ACCA adventure.
- It is also important to be aware that some bookmakers offer reduced odds on outcomes included in an ACCA than can be obtained from betting on the same outcome with them as a single bet. This erosion of value gives the bookie a constant edge.
- The more legs that are included in an ACCA, the lower the probability of success. The usual low probabilities make ACCAs very profitable for bookies, and so newsworthy stories of lucky punters striking it rich become national news for a reason – to encourage more people to have a go.
- Cashing out of a bet before its conclusion has also become a popular recent development, although the offers made for an early profit when ahead are usually grossly under-valued. In this way, the bookmaker maintains a stranglehold over its customers by depriving them of value.
- Embarking on a career of accumulator bets can be a financial and emotional roller coaster ride. The profit and loss curve will usually be very jagged; full of deep crevasses with the occasional mountainous peak.
Advanced ACCA tips
1. Insurance
Most major bookies offer ACCA ‘insurance’ - whereby guaranteeing the return of your stake in full if the combo is let-down by just one bad result - although do read the terms & conditions carefully, as there is usually a minimum odds threshold for each leg/total, the stake refund will be in free bets only & up to a maximum amount, etc.
2. Bonuses
Many bookmakers offer bonuses for winning accumulators, the size of which, is usually dependent on the number of legs in the bet. You will again need to understand the terms and conditions of each bonus offer and relate it to that particular bookmaker’s maximum pay-out – is the bonus paid over and above the maximum pay-out or is it an absolute limit, etc?
Cashing-out by laying-off
If the first three of your four selections were successful, then there is temptation to lay-off the final leg to guarantee a healthy profit.
The hard work has already been done, and it would be a tragedy to fall flat on the final game. So, it is worth considering laying-off the potential big win, by playing the reverse result of the leg in question, to guarantee a smaller, but welcome profit. Especially so if that last ACCA leg fails – better to have half the money banked versus zero (and if you have ACCA insurance, then at least you may also end up with your stake back as well).
Successful gamblers do not sit still waiting for things to happen – they will always try to manage an investment for profit, however small it turns out to be. ACCAs are therefore very useful tools in building-up a sizeable pot that can be laid-off for profit at any stage.
Creating a portfolio capable of managing for profit in this way is all about considering the timing of the bets included in the ACCA. Giving time between the legs, provides the opportunity to review the situation, and give space & time to calculate a lay bet at any stage. There would have been fewer opportunities to control the situation if all the games kicked-off at the same time or overlapped in any way.
Successful betting of any nature is all about remaining in control and being strong enough to make the right decisions when they are needed. Understanding the playing field and careful planning of any ACCA portfolio is essential to retain control.
Key take out
ACCAs can be great fun as each leg is chalked off the list in victory, but they can also be very short-lived when the first leg fails miserably.
Decisions need to be made regarding the timing of the portfolio, and whether to give the ACCA a chance to get going by entering the arena with an uncovered, shorter priced lead bet or playing a covered, larger odds outcome as the first leg. The decision is yours.
But, in short, to pick a big, big win, a good deal of luck is involved, with the odds invariably stacked against you.
CASHING OUT
Cashing out allows money back on a bet before the event is over. Punters are offered a settlement fee which is a price at which they have the option to get out of the bet. So, if you stand to win £10 on your bet, you might be offered an early cash out of £5 along the way. If you take the cash out, you bank £5 for your bet and exit the position.
Even if you would have eventually lost your bet, the cash out closes your exposure. Similarly, if you take a cash out, and the result that you bet on actually comes up for you, hard luck – you settled for the early offer.
Cash out is offered usually as part of live or in-play betting, with the odds being determined by the actual events during the event. As such the odds and the amount being offered by cashing out can be very volatile, especially in the latter stages of the sports event.
Cash out changes the dynamic between bookmaker and punter. Depending on your betting strategy, there may be times when a cash out offer looks more attractive than sticking around until the end. But there are a number of factors to consider when weighing up cash out offers that can make this a bit more complex.
Partial cash out
Partial cash out allows bettors to select a portion of their available cash out amount for immediate settlement, with the remainder left to ride on the final result. In most cases – but not all – the remainder of your original bet is recalculated to reflect the odds at the time of the partial cash out. Some bookies, like Betfair, allow you to cash out the exact percentage you wish.
When to take a cash out offer?
Sometimes, taking an early cash out payment makes sense, hedging against the risk that you might still actually walk away with nothing. In other cases, you might be better riding your luck until the results are settled, especially if you are looking like your bet will come up. In some scenarios, it might even be a case of salvaging something from a losing bet, essentially limiting your own maximum exposure when things aren’t going your way.
Whatever call you make, best practice dictates that you should record your decisions and think about whether you made the right move or not. This can help you start to develop a more intuitive feel over time for using cash out to your advantage.
Reasons cash out may be unavailable
There are several reasons why you may not be able to cash out on a bet you’ve placed.
- Incompatible Market – if you are not presented with a cash out option, it’s probably because it is not available on the sport (or competition) on which you’re betting. Availability of cash out varies between bookies, but the more obscure sports, leagues and competitions are unlikely to support the option.
- Incompatible Bet – another reason you might not see cash out is because the bet type does not support it. Specials or build-your-own bets are most likely to fall into this category.
- Free Bet Restriction – cash out usually isn’t available on free bet offers, because it would give punters the opportunity to take advantage by cashing out and claiming most of the free bet amount without any risk. However, it might be offered if the cash out exceeds the free bet amount, with only the excess returned to the punter.
- Market Volatility – cash out calculations are based on up-to-the-second analysis of match events and bettor activity. If a goal is scored, or a player sent off, cash out might be temporarily suspended while likely outcomes are recalculated. Market suspensions are more likely to happen towards the end of a game.
- It’s too late – Even a cash out can’t help if there’s no longer any chance your bet can win. If the cash out amount drops to zero, then the option to cash out will be removed.
Why do betting sites offer cash outs?
Cash Outs are the bookie’s attempt to reduce their liabilities and wrap up positions early, often in response to changing outcomes in the betting event itself.
Looking at cashing out from the bookmakers perspective, with any betting line you have bets on both sides of the equation.
A simple win or lose bet, will have a number of people winning on “Win”, and a number of people winning on “Lose”. At the start of the fixture, it could go either way, and there is no additional information to factor in when calculating the odds of a result either way. If one team scores however, this calculus is changed entirely, given they now have a definite advantage in the battle to win the fixture. In other words, the true odds of that outcome have just become much shorter.
So, there is now an increased likelihood the bookie will have to pay out on all bets on the Win side. But as a bookie, you start offering cash outs at 30 percent. If the result stays the same, this is saving money. If the result goes further in your favour, this starts to look like a very good deal indeed.
If the result goes against you, it’s a loss on a position that would have otherwise come good, but more often than not the cash out offer works well for the bookies across the board. As long as more first-scoring teams go on to win their games than not, proportionate to the odds and payouts on offer, the bookie has retained a bigger margin than would otherwise be the case.
Obviously, in reality nothing is left to chance. The bookies each have advanced algorithms in place, calculating the amount of the cash out payments they want to offer at any moment in time, based on the twists and turns of the betting event in question. While cashing out can still be the most sensible move for the gambler in any given situation, overall it gives the bookies a further statistical house edge.
SPORTS BETTING GLOSSARY
Accumulator/ACCA – a type of bet that combines the results from a number of fixtures for longer combined odds. Three or more results on a single bet, with all results needed to win on the ticket.
Aces – a bet available in tennis, based on the player serving the highest number of aces in a match.
Across the Board – a type of horse racing bet, where the wager backs a horse to win, place or show, with odds shortened accordingly.
Also-Ran– any backed selection not winning, placing or showing in a race, e.g. a fifth place finisher in a horse race.
Any To Come (ATC) – an instruction to automatically invest winnings from one bet into another.
Arbitrage/Arb – a discrepancy between odds on an event, usually between two bookmakers, that allows a guaranteed profit on any outcome by backing each side simultaneously.
Bad Beat – an unexpected losing bet, common US terminology for an unanticipated loss on an unexpected result.
Banker – a sure-fire bet, a ‘banker’ is a bet or a ticket gamblers expect will win and deliver a return.
Betting Exchange – a type of betting platform where gamblers bet on either side directly, ‘buying’ and ‘selling’ outcomes for the best odds. Unlike the bookmaker setting the odds, the exchange is a direct betting market.
Book – the totality of a bookmaker’s bets on each side of a sporting event, plus the odds and corresponding calculations for profit on each outcome.
Bookmaker (or Bookie) – the person or company accepting bets on sporting events. Also known as the ‘bookie’, ‘Turf Accountant’, or ‘sportsbook’.
Buy Price – the odds, or price, at which a player must back a selection on a betting exchange or index. Contrast with the sell price, when players want to lay a selection. The gap between the buy price and the sell price is the spread.
Carpet – any odds quoted at 3:1, commonly used UK informal term.
Cash Out – a feature of some online bookmakers allowing early settlement for a guaranteed amount. You can choose whether to settle some bets early, at a live price quoted by the bookmaker to buy you out of the bet.
Chalk – a predominantly US term for the outright favourite in a fixture.
Correct Score – a bet predicting the correct score of an event, for example a football match.
Deposit – an amount of money uploaded to an online betting account, the process of adding money to the bankroll
Double – a joint bet on two separate outcomes, for enhanced odds. Both events must win to come good.
Double Up – increasing the size of your bets to make up for losses. A Martingale strategy.
Drift – when odds on an outcome are getting longer, they are 'drifting'.
Each Way – a pair of wagers on first and a place for the backed selection, typically in racing events.
Even Money – a bet that pays 1:1, also known as ‘evens’
Favourite – the shortest odds selection in any event, the market favourite to win.
Fold - the multiple in an accumulator, as in a ‘6-fold accumulator’.
Form – the recent performance of a competitor as a predictor for future outcomes
Free Bet – a free bet offered by the bookmaker as a promotion, a widely used strategy for attracting new players or for specific betting promotions.
French Odds – odds denominated in 100s, based on the metric system. An antiquated method of quoting odds like 100 to 30, 100 to 8.
Goliath – a multi-line bet covering 247 different bets across 8 competitors, often covering a number of sporting events.
Grand – a thousand, as in £1,000.
Half-time Bets – bets on events such as football where you predict the score at half-time, or alternatively the second half score.
Hedge – bookies who bet for the sure favourite to offset their own liabilities, hedging their bets. Or a second bet designed to pay off if your primary bet fails.
In the Money – any runner placing in the top 4 in a racing event, or more broadly any bet that is in a winning position.
Joint Favourite – where two competitors share the shortest odds in any market, with an indistinguishable favourite.
Lay – backing an outcome to fail, an option available on betting exchanges. Betting that an outcome won’t happen, rather than what will happen.
Live Bet – an in-play bet during a sporting event, where live odds are quoted in real time during the event.
Long Odds – odds that reflect an outcome the market thinks is unlikely, the biggest payout for successful bets.
Long Shot – an unlikely bet, hopefully at long odds reflective of its limited chances.
Martingale – a type of betting strategy involving doubling up
Monkey – slang for £500.
Odds – the price quoted by the bookmaker to reflect the chances of any particular outcome, the rate of return offered on different bets, usually expressed as a fraction or a decimal multiplier.
Odds-on – any odds shorter than even money are said to be odds on, e.g. 1/10, 4/5.
Overlay – a competitor with a better chance than the odds suggest, e.g. a strong horse with long odds.
Patent – a multiple bet, featuring a treble, three doubles and a single bet on a selection of three outcomes.
Picks – the nominated favourites by industry pundits and tipsters.
Place – finishing in second place, or finishing within a designated threshold depending on the size of the field, short of winning, paid at a fraction of winning odds on an each way bet.
Punter – informal term for a gambler.
Roundabout – a combination bet across three picks in multiple bets, paying enhanced odds.
Short Odds – odds that reflect a likely outcome, very little return on bets. Odds will shorten as a market deems a result more likely, and bets accordingly.
Shortening – odds that are heading closer to evens or below, reflecting a perceived increased likelihood.
Single – any standalone bet on a single outcome.
Smart Money – the bets of those with perceived inside knowledge, who the analysts are backing.
Spread – the gap between the buy and sell price of a bet on a betting exchange.
Spread Betting – a form of sports betting where bets are multiplied by the number of points above or below the market buy or sell price. A bet that pays on a result proportionate to the result.
Sure Thing – a bet that is certain to come good, a very likely result.
Tip – a hotly favoured runner, the analysts pick.
Treble – a 3-part bet across three outcomes, all of which must win for the bet to succeed.
Trixie – three doubles and a treble bet across three different outcomes, with enhanced odds.
Underdog – an outside runner, or specifically a team with a point handicap.
Value – the best odds available for the position you are backing.
Yankee – an 11-way bet on 4 outcomes, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a 4-fold bet.